I have wondered for quite some time how many animals could be produced in say eight years by flushing and implanting embryos. Embryo flushing and implanting is a technique that has been around long enough to get most of its problems solved; or at least to give those that do it the necessary experience. We should be on the downside of the learning curve. I've done some rather extensive research on this question of how many in how long. To my surprise readings and investigations I've done have not found a source that gives an adequate answer. Most authors and people with whom I have talked agree that there is great potential but no actual numbers are given. Predictability studies have been done for other animals but evidently not for beef cattle. The key word here is "potential". There are all kinds of variables that can influence outcomes in either a positive or negative direction. When you're dealing with nature the outcomes are never a sure thing. What I'm after here is some sort of mathematical projection that can tell us what kind of potential might be realized. Maybe I just didn't ask the right people so perhaps I'm simply reinventing the wheel. However, my background as a college Professor and researcher just won't let a question go unanswered. I need to know. You can't tell, the answer might come in handy someday sometime somehow or in some way. Particularly if you need to feed the world someday.

I've determined if you start with just one bred heifer you have the potential to end up with 1255 animals in just under 8 years. Amazing isn't it? I would not have guessed the potential is that great and it may be even a little greater, or perhaps lesser, depending on how things go and what choices are made. It was necessary to construct a progressive flow chart of births and flushes to come up with this answer (see flow chart). You'll need to follow me real close and I'll try to run you through the flow chart.

A single heifer from conception to her last birthing has the potential of being flushed 15 times and giving birth to five heifer calves over a 95 month period. Each of the flushes has the potential of producing +- 5 embryos and each of these embryos has the potential of producing a live calf that in turn can produce progeny that in turn can also be flushed and so on. The original heifer would be implanted each time with pre-sexed embryos to increase the likelihood of heifer calves. The five heifer calves from the original heifer, then, can themselves be flushed which in turn produce embryos that produce progeny that can be flushed and so on. Each birthing has a nineteen month cycle from birth to completion of three flushes. The formula is 15 + 3 + 1 = 19. It takes fifteen months from birth to maturity at which time a first flush is done. From the first flush you wait 1.5 months to a second flush then 1.5 months to the third and final flush. The animal is then given a one month rest to allow time for the uterus to get back to normal and then either artificially inseminated or implanted. This then, starts a second nineteen month cycle from conception to birth to weaning to rest to flush to rest to AI or implant = 9 + 5 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 19. Note that we are waiting until the calf is weaned at five months and start flushing thirty days later. It might be possible to start flushing earlier with a calf at side. Most authorities I've talked to, however, tend to feel this tends to reduce the flushing success rate. Its important to remember that from the point in time of a successful implant it takes 28 months until the animal produced from the implant can complete flushing. From the point in time that a birth occurs it takes 19 months until that animal can complete flushing. Also when a cow or heifer is bred it takes nineteen months to complete flushing and to be re-bred

There are of course several assumptions to this mental exercise:

l. You start with a bred heifer, wean her calf at five months and start flushing at 6 months. If you started with a cow, the first 19 month cycle in the 8 year period could start with a flush. The time frame for total animals produced would then be a little less or the total animals produced could be a little higher.

2. The success rate of implants will average 60%. This could be higher or lower. The formula for a sequence of 3 flushes and implants is 3 x 5 x 60% (3 flushes x 5 embryos per flush x 60% implant success rate). Subsequent flushes of progeny produced from implants would be 3 x 9 x 5 x 60% and then 3 x 40.5 x 5 x 60% and so on. To get the number of heifers you would simply multiply these outcomes by 50%.

3. No consideration is given to the 40% of implants that were not successful. These might be successful on a second try. If so, the number of animals produced would be higher.

4. The percentage of bulls and heifers is 50/50. Technology for sexing embryos could influence the percentage of heifers in a positive way. This has not been considered.

5. Using pre-sexed embryos on the original heifer will produce five female calves over the time span.

6. The number of embryos per flush will average 5. This could be more or less.

7. Heifers can be successfully flushed starting at 15 months and then at 6 week intervals for a total of 3 flushes.

8. With a heifer or cow you wait from birth to 6 months to start a flushing sequence. As mentioned, it might be possible to flush earlier with calf at side.

9. Cows and heifers can be successfully implanted or AI 30 days after their last flush. This may take a little longer depending on the animal.

I'm sure there are other assumptions and variables perhaps not considered. For example, there is new technology relating to splitting embryos which could influence results. This has not been considered. I do believe, however, this exercise has resulted in a meaningful model for predictability of progeny numbers of beef cattle over time based on current embryo implanting and flushing methodology. To my knowledge this has never been accomplished before. It should serve as a basis for some lively discussion. Its been a fun one.

Now consider the potential outcomes if you start with three heifers or four or five. Or three cows or four or five. Your imagination might tell you we could have more of a problem feeding all the cattle than people. That's called over supply. If you remember your economics the price could decrease to the point that it does not cover cost. Now wait a minute, we are talking about miniature cattle that require one third the feed of large animals. This means price could decrease more substantially before margins could go completely to pot. There just might be some security in the demand curve when you are in the "miniature" cattle business.

This is the flow chart for the first birth only. You may request a complete flow chart by contacting the IMCBS at (253) 631-1911

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The name Panda® as it relates to cattle together with logos and related marks are product trademarks of Professor Richard H. Gradwohl ®2003. Professor Gradwohl with Paula Sue a Miniature Holstein Heifer Geneme Keyser of Washington State has three mini cattle all of which are pets. Carole Rodgers feeds one of her favorite pet mini cattle at her farm in Virginia. Professor Gradwohl exhibits the size relationship between himself (5' 9")and Precious (only 14" at birth). "Springtime" Mini Kentshire® Calf

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